Treasury Yields Mixed

Published July 10, 2026

U.S. Treasury yields rose early in the week as investors monitored the Iran war’s effect on oil prices and reviewed the Federal Reserve meeting minutes which revealed a continuing split on the rate outlook. Yields declined at the end of the week as the unemployment data report showed a strong labor market.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) June meeting. At the meeting, the members agreed to maintain the federal funds rate within the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Although the decision was unanimous, the minutes noted that the policy makers were split over the direction of future interest rate decisions.

“[M]any participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” the FOMC minutes stated. “Many other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range at the end of this year. Participants noted that their future policy actions would depend on incoming information.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of July 6 at 4.48% and traded as high as 4.60% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.98% and traded as high as 5.09% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment was 215,000 for the week ending July 4. This was down 2,000 from the prior week’s revised level and below analysts’ expectations of 218,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 8,000 to 1.81 million.

"Claims remain low and stable, with the rise over the last couple of months probably reflecting residual seasonality, rather than an increase in labor market slack," said chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Samuel Tombs. “Looking ahead, layoffs likely will remain low."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the holiday week of 7/6 at 4.56%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 5.06%.