Treasury Yields Fall
Published October 10, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields rose early in the week as investors reacted to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Yields decreased sharply on Friday as investors digest the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. At the meeting, policy makers agreed to lower the key federal funds rate between 4% to 4.25%. The minutes revealed the central bank was concerned about elevated inflation but decided to cut rates in reaction to a softening labor market.
“In considering the outlook for monetary policy, almost all participants noted that, with the reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, the Committee was well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments,” the FOMC minutes stated. “Participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and about the likely future path of policy.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of October 6 at 4.12% and traded as low as 4.11% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.71% and traded as low as 4.69% on Thursday.
On Thursday, the U.S. government shutdown delayed economic data including the weekly unemployment claims report. Weekly unemployment claims are a key indicator for labor market trends, economic slowdown and a gauge for possible interest rate cuts. Analysts expected 230,000 jobless claims for the week ending October 4. In the absence of official numbers, private sector estimates have become substitute measurements until the shutdown ends.
“A raft of alternative indicators of employment have leapt into the vacuum created by the pause on most official data releases,” said chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Sam Tombs. “Unfortunately, they are much worse guides to the official payroll data than many long-standing survey measures.”
The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 10/6 at 4.04%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.62%.
