Treasury Yields Fall

Published June 13, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields trended lower this week as investors waited for the latest consumer price index data. Yields continued to decline later in the week as the jobless claims report suggested a slowdown in hiring.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 0.1% in May, below economists’ forecast of 0.2%. The CPI rose to 2.4% year-over-year, marking a slight increase from the prior month but in line with economists’ projections.

“Today’s below forecast inflation print is reassuring – but only to an extent,” said chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, Seema Shah. “Tariff-driven price increases may not feed through to the CPI data for a few more months yet, so it is far too premature to assume that the price shock will not materialize.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of June 9 at 4.51% and traded as low as 4.41% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.97% and traded as low as 4.89% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 248,000 for the week ending June 7, this was unchanged from the prior week and exceeded analysts’ expectations of 246,000 claims. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 54,000 to 1.96 million, the highest level since last October.

“Continuing jobless claims keep rising to fresh highs,” stated head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, Neil Dutta. “This means unemployment is going up. Initial claims have perked up but remain tame by comparison. Taken at face value, it implies that rates of hiring have declined even if rates of firing have not materially increased.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 6/9 at 4.41%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.90%.