Treasury Yields Vary
Published May 30, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated in the holiday-shortened week as investors anticipated the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. Yields declined towards the end of the week after jobless claims rose more than anticipated, raising concerns about the labor market.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 6 and 7, 2025. Federal Reserve officials unanimously agreed to maintain the key federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. The minutes noted that economic growth and the labor market appeared stable although there were concerns about uncertainties in trade and fiscal policies.
“Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further, making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer,” stated the minutes. “Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of May 27 at 4.51% and traded as low as 4.42% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 5.04% and traded as low as 4.92% on Thursday.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 14,000 to 240,000 for the week ending May 24. This was more than the 230,000 claims that analysts anticipated. Continuing claims increased by 26,000 to 1.92 million.
"This is a sign that cracks are starting to form in the economy and that the outlook is deteriorating," said chief economist at FWDBONDS, Christopher Rupkey. "There is nothing great about today's jobless claims data and the jump in layoffs may be a harbinger of worse things to come."
The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 5/27 at 4.41%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.94%.
